Parameters

Guide: The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution models the number of events that occur in a fixed interval of time or space, when those events happen independently at a constant average rate λ. Classic examples: calls arriving at a switchboard, decay events from a radioactive source, or typos per page.

Use the binomial when you have a fixed number of trials n each with probability p. Use the Poisson when events occur continuously and you only know the average rate — there's no fixed n. The Poisson is also the limit of the binomial when n is large and p is small (with λ = np).

P(X = k) is the probability of exactly k events. P(X ≤ k) is the cumulative probability of k or fewer. P(X ≥ k) = 1 − P(X ≤ k−1) is the probability of at least k events — useful for questions like "what's the chance of 10 or more calls this hour?"

  • Events occur independently
  • The average rate λ is constant over the interval
  • Two events cannot occur at exactly the same instant

A key property: the mean and variance are both equal to λ. If your data's variance is much larger than its mean (overdispersion), a negative binomial model may fit better.

Related Tools

Binomial Distribution Normal Distribution Z-Table All calculators